Spain's Met Office issues yellow weather warning for heavy rain, thunderstorms and hail in Malaga province

It has only just started and this summer is already atypical. That's not to say that it can't rain in this season, and decades ago it did rain more frequently. But in recent years it has been very rare to find situations like this. During previous weeks there has been a succession of depressions that have barely touched Malaga province; but the one that is on its way has set off alarm bells.

Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) has activated a yellow warning (risk) this week due to the arrival of a Dana. This will mainly affect the Ronda area and could leave downpours of up to 15mm in just one hour on Thursday. These may be accompanied by thunderstorms and hail. The most likely period is from midnight to 6pm on 27 June.

The warning has only been activated for the Serranía area, but it does not mean that other parts of the province may also experience occasional heavy rain, especially on the western Costa del Sol and in the Vega de Antequera area. On the other hand, in the Guadalhorce valley, Malaga city and the Axarquia there will be only token showers. On Friday there could be a few more showers in the areas mentioned above, but of a lesser degree.

The cause of this instability will be a 'Dana' (high level depression) weather system that will affect Galicia in the north of Spain from today and over the next few days will move along the Atlantic coast of Portugal to the south, and on Thursday will be located in the Gulf of Cadiz. From there, bands of precipitation are likely to reach Malaga province, although there is still much uncertainty, as the director of the Aemet Meteorological Centre in Malaga, Jesús Riesco, explained.

If it happens, the European weather model forecasts a significant amount of rain for the Malaga province countryside, especially in the Ronda area, where a possible accumulation of up to 35mm is expected; and around 20mm in the Vega de Antequera, according to data provided by José Luis Escudero, an expert in Malaga meteorology who is monitoring this weather system minute-by-minute.

In 1974, specifically on 14 June, a Dana dumped 74mm of rain in Malaga city. This is the closest precedent in time to the phenomenon that could occur this week, and for which the Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) has issued a special warning at a national level, given the risk of "heavy storms" of rain and hail happening his week in large areas of the mainland.