'Dana' weather system threatens to bring storms to Malaga and the Costa del Sol: Where and when will it rain the most?

The typical summer weather in these southern latitudes of mainland Spain, almost always very hot and dry, will take a few more days to arrive. The arrival of an isolated high level depression (Dana) could bring rain, storms and a drop in temperatures to Malaga province in the middle of this week. This is what the weather forecast models indicate, although meteorologists warn that it is still too far away to make a more accurate prediction.

In any case, the threat is there, especially on Thursday (27 June) in parts of the Serranía de Ronda, western Costa del Sol, Guadalhorce valley and Antequera areas. According to the current scenario, Malaga city and the Axarquia region will escape with only a few light showers.

"The Dana on Wednesday is centred to the west of Galicia and throughout the day it will move along the Atlantic coast of Portugal towards the south, and on Thursday it will be almost in the Gulf of Cadiz, and from there it could affect us," explained the director of Aemet, Spain's state weather agency centre in Malaga, Jesús Riesco. The possible evolution is that on Friday it will move inland and then dissipate.

Depending on how it is positioned, it could leave precipitation in the south of Spain. "Malaga province may be in the area affected by the Dana, with precipitation of a certain intensity; but we will have to follow its evolution before we can confirm it, because anything small changes could alter everything," warned the meteorologist. "There is still a lot of uncertainty, if now it looks like rain could fall in Cordoba and Malaga provinces, the same could happen later in Cadiz and Seville, or in Granada and Jaen, it is not at all clear although there is a threat".

The truth is that June has been rather more unstable than previous months due to the entry of successive weather troughs that have collaterally touched the province, which have helped to alleviate the high temperatures although they have left very little water, apart from the occasional isolated downpour. On this occasion, "it is likely that there will be locally heavy rainfall in some areas of Andalucía, perhaps in Malaga, but we will have to wait and see how it develops," said Riesco.

If it does happen, it will do so in the form of showers, thunderstorms and also with a drop in thermometers, which is almost certain for the interior of the province between Wednesday and Friday. A general drop in the mercury is expected, more pronounced inland but hardly noticeable on the coast. Riesco added, "In Antequera, we will go from being above 30C in the first half of the week, to 26 degrees on Thursday and Friday, so there will be a drop due to the Dana".

What is certain is that, if it does occur, the European weather model forecasts a significant amount of relief for the Malaga countryside, especially in the areas of Ronda and the Guadalhorce valley, where a possible accumulation of up to 35mm is expected, and around 20mm the Vega de Antequera, according to data provided by José Luis Escudero, an expert in Malaga meteorology who is also monitoring this phenomenon.

"The two main models, the European and the American, place the Dana this Thursday in the Gulf of Cadiz", he warned, so the probability of this rainfall is high. However, he agreed that there is still a lot of uncertainty about the position of the precipitation band, which is moving between Cadiz and Malaga, especially the westernmost area of the province.

On the other hand, Escudero predicted the possibility of mild 'terral' warm wind in Malaga city between Friday and Sunday; while in parts of the Antequera and Ronda areas temperatures will drop, especially the minimum temperatures. In addition, calima is forecast for this week, although the density of Sahara desert dust in suspension is expected to be low.