Will it rain at Easter?

Despite more than 20 years of reporting on the weather, SUR reporter Ignacio Lillo admits that even he doesn't yet know

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Thursday, 10 April 2025, 17:08

The circus that has formed around weather forecasts is maddening. Sure, we’re all on edge - recent precedents aren’t good, and it is going to start raining again, although that, in reality, doesn’t mean much. While we spend most of the year more or less keeping an eye on the weather, during Holy Week it becomes a general obsession, especially in a place as steeped in religious brotherhoods as Malaga. This is the one time all year when no one wants it to rain.

But reality is stubborn, and if Easter falls in spring, then it’s only natural for the weather to be unstable. The old saying exists for a reason: en abril, aguas mil (”a thousand April showers”).

Will it rain this year? Honestly, I have to admit I don’t know. Even after more than 20 years of reporting on the weather, with a few sources and some understanding, under this kind of atmospheric scenario, anything anyone says would be pure speculation.

The meteorologists at Aemet say it loud and clear - they are top professionals and always the most reliable source when it comes to these matters.

The problem is that, like in so many other fields, people have realised there’s money to be made because weather draws audiences - especially at times like these. So now, hundreds of websites and so-called gurus have popped up on social media, capable of saying one thing and its exact opposite, practically on the same day and without breaking a sweat.

In the past week alone, I’ve read references to possible 'Danas' (isolated high-altitude depressions) that could settle over the Gulf of Cadiz during those dates; to shifting anticyclones and new storm systems. I’ve seen talk of sudden stratospheric warming in the Arctic, the jet stream, and climate change.

And somehow, a wave of pessimism has set in, as if some people have already decided that the religious floats won’t be able to hit the streets… Maybe they’ve learned quickly from traditional media that bad news sells better than good.

Ultimately, all that scientific paraphernalia and jargon only serves to cover up the fact that, in reality, they haven’t the slightest clue what’s going to happen, and they fill the space with speculation for an audience hungry for answers and impatient for obvious reasons. But the only truth is that the atmosphere this spring is highly chaotic and changeable, and there’s still time for another whole train of storm systems to pass before Palm Sunday arrives.

So, if as of today the chances of rain are about the same as the chances of no rain, we need to be more humble, keep studying the models, and wait for the picture to become clearer. And above all, let’s cut the nonsense.

Top 50

Esta funcionalidad es exclusiva para registrados.

Reporta un error en esta noticia