Much-needed rain on the cards for Malaga and Costa del Sol as key reservoir falls to lowest-ever level

Weather experts are predicting that more than 100mm could fall in many parts of the province in just 72 hours later this week

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Wednesday, 9 October 2024, 11:22

The first heavy rains of autumn are expected in Malaga and along the Costa del Sol at the end of this week after a long, dry summer. If they do fall they will give a much-needed boost to the province's reservoirs in the midst of the ongoing drought crisis in the south of Spain.

More than 100mm of rain could fall between Friday and Sunday (11-13 October) across the entire Malaga province, according to predictions of the Junta de Andalucía's Hidrosur network. Rainfall on Friday is expected to be light, and will only reach 20mm in Ronda, Estepona and the inland areas of Antequera and Axarquia. Meanwhile, no more than 10mm is expected to fall in the greater Malaga area.

The most rain is expected to come on Saturday 12 October, where 100mm could be collected in the Marbella, Estepona and Los Reales areas; 70-80mm in the Serranía de Ronda and the upper Axarquía; 60-70mm in the Guadalhorce valley and 50-60mm in Malaga city. A third shower could even happen on Sunday 13 October, adding another 10-20mm in many areas of the Malaga coastline.

Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) director in Malaga Jesús Riesco said that throughout this week three successive Atlantic squalls are expected to pass through the province: the first, on Monday, deposited some light showers of up to 10mm in parts of the upper Guadalhorce and Antequera, such as Archidona and Bobadilla. Then, this Wednesday, the remnants of hurricane Kirk are expected to pass through in the form of strong westerly winds and 'terral' winds, causing temperatures to rise in Malaga city, although without significant rainfall.

Uncertainty

Thursday is seen as a "transition days", with the most significant rainfall on Friday, with the arrival of the third storm, which Aemet forecasts will move to the southwest of the country. "It is difficult to specify how much it could affect us, but it does seem that it could produce rain at the end of the week," Riesco said.

He added it could still move, and be more intense on Saturday or Sunday, "but in principle, yes there may be some rainfall, and we'll see how intense it is, depending on how it is positioned". The meteorologist did not predict a significant amount of accumulated rainfall in Malaga province compared to the westernmost part of Andalucía.

José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR weather blog Tormentas y Rayos said he is also sceptical about the heavy rain forecast. "The American model gives almost no rain, they only agree that until Friday hardly anything will fall, but then on Saturday the European model predicts a lot of rain," he said. Escudero suggested waiting until Thursday, when the situation will be more definite. However, he said Monday's rainfall which left up to 10mm in some inland areas was a surprise.

Reservoirs at minimum levels

The Guadalhorce (north of Malaga city) is at a critical situation, with the reservoir only at 8% of its capacity. With barely 10 cubic hectometres, it has been at an all-time low since 24 September.

The other reservoirs in the area are not doing much better either. The Guadalteba, which is the largest in the area, contains 18.4 cubic hectometres, and is at 12% capacity, while the Conde de Guadalhorce contains 14.25 cubic hectometres and is at 21.4% capacity. Between the three of them, they have enough water for just eight months, if there was absolutely no rain.

While how much rain is set to fall remains uncertain, what is certain is a drop in temperature from Friday onwards. "It won't go above 30C and we won't have the significant temperatures we had last week," Jesús Riesco said.

This Wednesday, there may be a last spurt of mild 'terral' warm wind, but on Thursday the mercury will drop to 26C, and for the weekend the maximum will not exceed 22-23 degrees in Malaga city - with minimums of 18-20 degrees.

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