Succession of storms set to bring first heavy rain of year to Malaga this week

Storm Garoé's arrival in Spain, the first major weather event to hit Malaga this year, is set to be followed by a series of others this week bringing widespread rain to the province. However, it will be less than in Andalusian provinces, such as Huelva and Seville, where the Junta has already activated its emergency plan due to a risk of flooding.

Rain has been falling across the Serranía de Ronda since Monday 20 January, as well as the westernmost part of the Costa del Sol, with up to 30mm expected to be collected, while Antequera is expected to benefit from a second wave. Only light showers are forecast for the rest of the province and Malaga city.

Storm Garoé has been skimming the Spanish mainland, where successive fronts have been crossing from west to east, since yesterday afternoon. It is therefore expected to hit once it's weakened. Downpours were "locally moderate" in the far west (Serranía de Ronda and Estepona area), according to Spain's state weather agency director in Malaga, Jesús Riesco.

By yesterday evening, some 15mm had been collected in the Guadalteba river area and parts of the Serranía de Ronda; and 10mm in Los Reales de Sierra Bermeja (Estepona) and in the upper Guadalhorce (Ardales). However, rain continued to fall at least until the early hours of this Tuesday morning.

Local weather expert José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR blog Tormentas y Rayos, predicts 10-15mm of rain will fall in Malaga city, the Guadalhorce valley and Greater Malaga area. He predicts between 20-30mm in the Serranía de Ronda and the western Costa del Sol. "With the winds to come these days it is possible that a little more will be collected," he said. Meanwhile, in Huelva and Seville, more than 200mm is expected to fall.

This Tuesday, Malaga province will remain outside the area where the storms are meant to hit as they cross Andalucía further north with the main beneficiary provinces being Huelva, Seville and Cordoba. On Wednesday, it could fall lightly in inland Malaga, especially in Antequera.

Other storms will also pass through during the week, especially at the end of the week, when Jesús Riesco forecasts that a "fairly deep" storm will move in, which could bring new rainfall between Sunday and Monday.

"By next weekend, another storm will probably move closer to the San Vicente cape, but there are still many days to go," Escudero added. It will offer a new opportunity for the water levels in the reservoirs to be boosted, which, although much better than last year, are still far from an optimum level, with a total of 169 million cubic metres, at 27.6% of capacity.

Samuel Biener, weather expert at Meteored (tiempo.com), also said that several very active fronts will arrive and rain will fall over much of Spain in the coming days, although with significant differences. A so-called 'atmospheric river' arriving from the Caribbean will bring intense rain between Monday and Tuesday in the western part of Andalucía and in Extremadura. Some storms are also expected in Galicia and around the Gulf of Cadiz.

According to Meteored predictions, very heavy rainfall will be recorded until Thursday night in the provinces of Huelva, Bajo Guadalquivir, Seville, western Cordoba and southern Badajoz. These areas will locally exceed 150mm, and may even exceed 200mm. More than 100mm are also expected in areas of the mountains of Toledo, western Galicia and some regions of Extremadura. Some rivers will experience a considerable increase in their flows.