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A new storm is expected to arrive in the province of Malaga on Thursday, replacing the current 'Dana' (cold drop), which has brought some rain over the last few days. Although the exact areas of distribution of the rain are not known yet, all forecasts have stated that the abundant precipitation will last at least until Sunday 9 March, benefiting the countryside and the reservoirs of the province.
Contrary to the cold drop, which brought heavy and inconsistent downpours, the storm will bring widespread and persistent rainfall.
"Almost all the weather models agree that the storm will indeed form; what remains to be seen is the position it will take," said José Luis Escudero, head of SUR's 'Tormentas y Rayos' (storms and lightning) blog. "Depending on where it falls, it could irrigate the whole province for four days, which will be of great benefit to the countryside and the reservoirs." Despite it being too early to give the precise location of where the greatest amounts of rainfall will be discharged, forecasts are already pointing mainly to the western Costa del Sol and Serranía de Ronda.
First of all, what is affecting us now is a low pressure area, which will continue to affect us until Thursday, according to Juan de Dios del Pino, Spain's state weather agency Aemet's spokesperson in Andalucía. Tuesday and Wednesday will be less humid, although showers are not ruled out, because the low pressure area is weakening. However, on Thursday it will tend to reactivate due to the integration with the remains of another low pressure area that is now in the Canary Islands.
Starting on Friday and, for the moment, at least until next Sunday, it will give way to an Atlantic storm, with a train of fronts that will spread in waves across the whole of Malaga. "It will leave precipitation starting from Huelva that will spread to the whole of Andalusia. It will be rain of a different nature, widespread and persistent." So much so that over the course of this week more than 100 liters per square meter may accumulate in some places. "The two phenomena combined (first a Dana, and then an Atlantic storm, will leave significant amounts."
The European prediction model points to the area between Marbella, Estepona and the upper Guadalhorce Valley (precisely where the reservoirs are) as the area where most water will accumulate, up to 120mm according to the data provided by this mathematical system. Del Pino pointed out that it is even possible that the rains will extend to the first days of next week, especially the following Monday.
What meteorological studies predicted years ago is coming true - the most abundant periods of rain in the province of Malaga are shifting from autumn (September to November) to spring (February-April, and especially March).
Until a decade ago, the "big prizes" of the hydrological year were usually November and December - traditionally the wettest months, with an average of 100mm. While rainfall has been decreasing during these two months, March is now the third wettest month of the year (with an average of 65mm), having overtaken January and February.
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