Met Office forecasts longest winter episode of rain in Malaga and on Costa del Sol this week, and this is when it's due

Almost at the end of winter (in fact, the meteorological spring has already sprung), Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) is forecasting what it expects to be the most extensive rainfall in recent months in Malaga province. For the first time this season, if the Aemet forecast is correct, four consecutive days of widespread rainfall could be registered. At this point, however, it will be very difficult for the reservoirs to capture enough water to reach an optimum level for the summer but at least this episode of ran will serve to alleviate the level of the battered reserves

Jesús Riesco, head of the Aemet weather centre in Malaga, explains what is on its way: "An Atlantic storm will leave rainfall from Thursday onwards throughout the province". This phenomenon, which will be accompanied by westerly winds, will affect the whole of the Spanish mainland, and in some provinces it will do so in the form of snow.

Friday will be a transitional day, when the weather fronts will hardly be noticed on the coast but will persist inland. Saturday is expected to be the rainiest day of the period. On Sunday, the rains will continue in inland areas of the province.

"Having four consecutive days of rainfall is something new that has not happened in recent months," said Riesco. The areas which are expected to benefit the most are the Serranía de Ronda, Antequera and the north of the Axarquía. At this point, it remains to be seen if the greatest discharges coincide with collectors of the main reservoirs of the Costa del Sol (La Concepción, which generally benefits from these episodes); the Guadalhorce system and La Viñuela in the Axarquía.

The head of the director of the Malaga weather centre is optimistic about what is to come: "It will be the heaviest rain in recent months, moderate and locally persistent, but it may not rain the most in the area of the reservoirs". But there will be widespread rainfall, especially on Thursday and Saturday, which the weather models show will be the wettest days.

As for the type of rainfall, Riesco defined it as "moderate", and although no weather warnings have yet been issued, it is possible that one will be activated in the next few hours for the area around Ronda, for accumulated rainfall of up to 50mm on Saturday. "But it will not be too heavy and good for the countryside," he stressed.

It should be remembered that the seasonal forecast for March already indicated that the month would be as wet or wetter than normal (52mm). In the last two years, the month was key to saving the dry season, which points to a trend of shifting the heaviest rainfall from the beginning to the end of winter and spring (there has also been more abundant rainfall in April, May and June lately).

However, the meteorologist admits that at this stage it will be almost impossible to get collect enough water in the reservoirs to have a normal summer, as from April onwards the probability of heavy downpours is much lower.

José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR weather blog, even puts a time on the arrival of the storm front: "Tomorrow the rain will arrive in Malaga capital between three and four in the afternoon". At the moment, with an eye on the European weather model, he does not yet expect large accumulations, in the order of 7-8mm in the city, and below inland.

On Friday it will continue to rain at high altitudes, although not in Malaga city. But late on Friday and in the early hours of Saturday morning it will start to rain again. "More rainy winds will arrive and will leave higher accumulated rainfall", which, according to the weather model, will be around 40 to 50mm in the Serranía de Ronda; 30 to 40mm in the Marbella area and 30 to 40mm in the interior of La Axarquía. On Sunday during the early hours of the morning, the storm will deliver its final blows.

In addition to the above, it will also get colder during the end of the week. Temperatures will drop due to the change in the air mass. If until now daytime levels have been above 20C, between Thursday and Friday they will drop to between 17 and 18 degrees in Malaga city, with minimums of 9C.

However, the really drastic change will be felt inland: in Antequera and Ronda the drop will be more significant, with a maximum temperature of 15C tomorrow, 13 on Friday and only 11 degrees on Saturday.