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The return of Donald Trump to hold power in the United States is not good news for Malaga-based exporters, who fear the tightening of existing tariffs (such as those imposed on table olives during his previous term in office) and the creation of new ones.
The companies in the province that do most business with the United States are waiting with trepidation to see which of the many threats made by the new president in the area of international trade will come to fruition. Trump has gone so far as to say that he wants to impose a 10% penalty on any product entering his country, but yesterday he also issued a confusing threat about Spain - mistakenly including it among the BRICS group of countries, which he has threatened with 100% tariffs. The most immediate seems to be the 25% he is going to impose on Canada and Mexico although, given his unpredictable nature, anything can be expected. What is clear is that Trump is ready to increase protectionism for the US market.
"We are on tenterhooks," admitted Baldomero Bellido, president of the agricultural employers' association Asaja Málaga. "There is uncertainty throughout international trade because we don't know which way this man is going to go. He has thrown many arrows and some of them will reach their target, although I don't think he is going to impose tariffs on everyone," he said. The problem, he added, is that Spain already had a bad experience with Trump's first term in office, when the Republican government imposed tariffs on Spanish black olives and olive oil, while countries such as Portugal, Italy and Greece were spared.
"The one on olive oil was removed when Biden arrived, but the one on table olives has continued, despite the fact that it has been declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. It is easy to impose a tariff, but removing it is complicated," Bellido said, lamenting that agricultural products are "the weak link" in international trade. "We are the ones who pay for the trade wars that are opened on other issues."
The USA is currently the fourth largest destination for Malaga exports after France, Italy and Portugal. Between January and November 2024 (December is not yet in the statistics), the 705 companies in the province that exported to the USA rang up sales worth 292 million euros, which represents a 30.7% increase on the full financial year for 2023. Almost 80% of this grand total is based on a single product: olive oil. It is precisely the increase in production this past olive-growing season that is the cause of the sharp rise in exports to the United States in 2024: olive oil has gone from generating 168 million euros to 225 million euros in sales.
It should be remembered that two years ago Spain managed to dethrone Italy as the biggest exporter of olive oil to the United States. It was quite an achievement for Spain's exporting self-esteem, bearing in mind that Italy is the country that Americans have linked to the 'liquid gold' in their collective imagination. The growth of Spanish olive oil sales to that nation has been spectacular in recent years and a large part of the credit lies with a Malaga company: Dcoop. Their trick? Thanks to its intelligent alliance with the American company Pompei, it has bottling plants in the USA and leading brands under which it sells the product it brings in bulk from Spain.
Dcoop, Malaga's main exporter to the USA by far, is adopting a cautious attitude. "We are on standby, logically concerned because there is a great risk that the US will impose new tariffs, but we must not get ahead of ourselves: we will have to wait and see what measures are implemented in the coming months," said Esteban Carnero, head of corporate relations at this company, incidentally the world's largest olive oil producer.
In 2023 Dcoop exported products to the USA worth 170 million euros, equivalent to approximately 12% of its total turnover. The vast majority of this figure is accounted for by oil, in terms of both volume and price. It also exports table olives (although sales have fallen sharply since the imposition of US tariffs in 2018) and, to a lesser extent, wine. The impact for Dcoop if Trump imposes tariffs on Spanish olive oil could be minimal if they are like those of his previous term, as they did not affect oil bottled within the US (remember, the Malaga-based company has bottling plants over there). However, if this tariff is extended to all incoming oil, whether in bulk or packaged, we would be talking about serious harm.
A businessman from the olive trade who wishes to remain anonymous expresses the fear that he believes is floating in the air for many: "Meloni was at Trump's inauguration. Do you think he hasn't already negotiated that Italy should not have tariffs imposed on oil? If our main competitor sells without penalty to the USA while we are charged tariffs, the price of Spanish produce is going to go down."
The other great product of the Malaga orchards and fields, the avocado, could also be affected by this new protectionist wave, despite the fact that the United States is not its client. This is how Víctor Luque, general manager of the main subtropical food cooperative in La Axarquía, Trops, explained it: "Malaga avocados are sold in Europe, so there is no direct risk, but if the United States imposes tariffs on Mexican avocados, as Trump has announced, part of the Mexican harvest, which is the world's leading producer, could end up coming to Europe and then it would compete with ours."
The arrival of Trump to the presidential office is not only worrying those who work the land, it is also worrying businessmen from other sectors that have an important market in the United States. This is the case with Airzone, a Malaga-based manufacturer of climate control devices, which currently owes 10% of its turnover to the US "with a very high potential for growth." "Beyond the tariffs that may affect us, which I don't think will be important because there aren't usually many tariffs on energy-efficient electronics as they don't consider it something to protect, companies dedicated to improving energy efficiency are going to suffer a halt in our progress in the USA, as the regulations to promote energy efficiency are going to be paralysed," said Airzone founder and CEO, Antonio Mediato. He hopes this impact will be tempered by the fact that energy efficiency in the US is covered by different regulations in each state.
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