When will we know what the weather be like this Easter in Malaga and along the Costa del Sol?

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Tuesday, 1 April 2025 | Updated 02/04/2025 07:30h.

Right now the nervousness of the religious brotherhoods, visitors and the industry sectors linked to tourism, hotel and hospitality trades in Malaga province is growing by the minute. Semana Santa (Easter Week) is fast approaching and the weather instability makes it impossible to make a reliable forecast at this stage, with almost two weeks to go.

From the Aemet state meteorological centre in Malaga, its head, Jesús Riesco, rules out offering possible scenarios at this stage, but at least marks the time on the horizon in which it will be possible to know what the weather will be like with some certainty: "At this time of year, almost until Thursday of next week we can't say anything, before that it's madness because the error threshold is very high, it doesn't make sense".

Therefore, it will be necessary to wait at least until the 10 April for the forecast from Palm Sunday (13 April) and during the following days to have the maximum scientific rigour. In fact, the month will begin with a new change in the weather: after a weekend of warm 'terral' winds and almost summer-like temperatures, the rains will return to Malaga province in the form of two storms. The first, between Wednesday and Friday (2 to 4 April); and the second, from the middle of next week.

There are many theories circulating at the moment. One of the most popular among weather enthusiasts and religious brotherhoods is the possible appearance of a 'Dana' storm, which would be located in the Gulf of Cadiz at the start of Holy Week. If this were to occur, which is by no means confirmed, it would be a permanent sword of Damocles over the processions, as these phenomena can sometimes leave intense but very localised discharges of rain and are very difficult to predict.

"Actually, the reliability of the predictions of the weather models means that it is not yet prudent to establish a forecast, as it can change," warned Jesús Riesco. On this point, he recalled the case that happened a few years ago, when there was a radical change in the forecast even on the Thursday before Good Friday, "which threw the whole procession into disarray, since we are in a context of great climatic variability, and right now venturing to make a forecast is not scientifically adequate".

"We are in spring and we can have everything, even during Holy Week," added the director of the Malaga meteorological centre. "We have had Semana Santas with no rain at all during the period in which it falls this year, and Easter weeks with rain on five days out of the eight days between Palm Sunday and Easter Sunday.

As a reference, the historical average when the period of religious festivities falls at this time of year is that it can rain between one and two days. This is highlighted by the study of the average of the last 25 weeks in Malaga city, "but there is great variability from one to another".