'Dana' on way to south of Spain: how will it affect the weather in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol this week?

Aemet forecasts downpours that could be heavy in some parts of the province with up to 150mm of rain falling

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Sunday, 27 October 2024, 05:53

Rainfall is practically guaranteed this week in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol. The position of an isolated high level depression ('Dana') in the area of the southern mainland favours the arrival of the much-needed rain in most of the province, according to the forecast of Aemet, Spain's state weather agency's centre in Malaga.

The main episode will begin on Monday, 28 October, a day on which a transport drivers' strike is planned for city, interurban and occasional buses (school routes, for example). Therefore, if you have to take the car, the best thing to do is to leave in good time and be patient.

To begin with, the most notable feature of this weekend is the drop in temperatures, which was already being felt on Saturday. On Friday, a cold front swept across the province from northwest to southeast. In fact, it left heavy downpours in places such as Antequera, Nerja and Villanueva de la Concepción. In the latter case, it has made its presence felt with a slight rise in the level of the Casasola dam, which supplies Malaga city.

"Behind the front comes a cold mass, much more than the one we have had these previous days", warned the local director of Aemet, Jesús Riesco. With this, there will be a considerable drop in temperature this Saturday and Sunday, with maximum temperatures of only 20C (a few days ago they were close to 30 degrees) and a minimum of 12C, which are values clearly below normal for this time of year. Inland, for example, in Antequera, the daytime high will be only 15C, and the nighttime low will be only 6 degrees.

'Dana' arrives

The Dana will be present from today and will remain in these latitudes until Thursday, that is, for the rest of the month of October. The meteorologist points out that this does not mean that the rains will be continuous, but that it depends on the days and times. For the time being, only showers are forecast for the weekend, especially inland and at some points along the coast in the afternoon, but they will not be heavy.

From Monday onwards is when Aemet warns of more intense rainfall. Although it is still difficult to know which days and areas will be more likely, but what is clear is that at least until Thursday the Dana may generate precipitation throughout the province, which may occasionally be heavy.

Contrary to what has happened so far, Jesús Riesco does not see downpours being more likely in the far west, so abundant water could finally reach the Axarquía and the Guadalhorce valley, which are the areas most affected by the severe drought. "We are going to see how the flows are positioned, but we have to see it day by day". It is not ruled out that weather warnings will be activated on Monday, "because it is a situation that has the potential to leave locally some days of heavy rainfall in the province".

José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR weather blog, 'Storms and Lightning', said that on Friday "there were surprises" and the front reactivated more than expected. It left heavy showers in some places, such as Villanueva de la Concepción, where it accumulated almost 30mm in a short period of time, which caused water to reach the Casasola reservoir. There was also a hailstorm in Venta de Zafarraya and a heavy downpour in the town of Antequera.

As for the Dana, Escudero explained that most weather models agree that it will be located around the Gulf of Cadiz. "Once it positions itself in that area and depending on how it moves, we may have more or less rain in the province. The two main models show some differences, but if it only moves a few kilometres to the right, to the left or up or down a little, the accumulations will vary".

At the moment, on Monday, the European weather model warns that 25-30mm could fall in an area that includes the Guadalhorce valley, the inland areas of the western Costa del Sol and the Serranía de Ronda. In the cumulative episode, both this and the American model predict that in the same areas, which is where, initially, there is a greater probability, up to 150 mm could be reached (up to 50mm in the rest of Malaga province).

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