Aemet activates red alert for temperatures up to 42C in Guadalhorce valley and Costa del Sol area

If you thought it had been quite warm in the province since the start of the week, today (Wednesday, 12 July) will be the hottest day of the year in Malaga, especially in the city, Guadalhorce Valley and parts of the Costa del Sol, where the terral wind will blow hot in the areas where the weather phenomenon occurs (Velez, Estepona, etc.).

As a result, Spain's state weather agency Aemet has activated the amber level warning for the entire province, with the possibility of the thermometer reaching 40C, although the mercury may exceed 42 degrees in the upper Guadalhorce valley, in municipalities such as Coín, Álora and Pizarra, among others, where a red level warning has been issued.

Given this situation, could the maximum temperature record for the month of July be broken? As far as maximum temperatures are concerned, Jesús Riesco, head of Aemet's Malaga office, categorically rules out reaching the highest in history, which was set on 18 July 1978, when it reached 44.2C at the airport.

José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR weather blog, Tormentas y Rayos (storms and lightning), also pointed out that this Wednesday will be "the worst day" of the heatwave in which a large part of Andalucía is immersed, and according to the American and European weather models, up to 44C are expected in Malaga's Guadalhorce Valley; although in the city it is not certain that it will reach 40. "It will be difficult for it to happen, but it will depend on how the terral blows".

However, Escudero warned about nighttime lows, which "are so high that they could break records", he pointed out. The African air mass that is affecting the area is already leaving values well above what is considered a "tropical night".

In recent days it is barely been below 25 degrees at dawn (24.4 yesterday and 25.5 at the airport weather station today). "If it is already like this, we could beat the record for the highest minimum in the month of July when the terral comes", Escudero ventured. The record right now is held on two dates: 13 July 1949 and 16 July 1962, both with 28.8 degrees.

However, the Malaga director of Aemet considers that the probability of this event happening is "very low". As an anecdote, the highest minimum in history was on 3 August 1949, with 29.4 degrees, due to an extraordinary convective weather phenomenon.

On a positive note, the entry of warm air from the west will drastically reduce the relative humidity, which has been 80% and leaves a feeling of exhaustion that is difficult to bear. On the other hand, the forecast is modulating and on Thursday we could see an influx of easterly air, which will reduce the weather warning levels on the coast, according to Jesús Riesco. "The period of the terral will probably be shortened".

From that day onwards, and especially on Friday, the easterly wind on the coast will considerably lower the mercury, a slight break in what Aemet predicts will be the coolest day in the city and on the coast, with 30 degrees. The haze, which is another of the features of recent skies, will subside from today and blue skies will return to Malaga.

However, at the weekend the west will return and with it, the heat will return: on Saturday and Sunday it will once again reach 35-36 degrees on the coastal strip and up to 39 inland, "and if it comes together with the high humidity we're going to have a bad time", Escudero pointed out.

In addition, Aemet's long-term forecasts indicate that the last two weeks of July will also be "warmer than normal".