Spain's Met Office forecasts wet start to Holy Week in Malaga and on the Costa del Sol with 'muddy' rain still on the radar

Ignacio Lillo

Malaga

Friday, 22 March 2024, 12:43

It is just 48 hours before the start of the Holy Week processions across much of Spain and the weather forecasts for the first few days from the state weather agency (Aemet) are already quite clear. And, at the moment, they are not exactly favourable for the brotherhoods.

On Palm Sunday morning and afternoon, in theory, the risk of rain is low; but the probability of showers increases during the night of Palm Sunday to Holy Monday. Therefore, it could force those brotherhoods that have planned to process during the night to shorten their routes.

On Holy Monday, the situation worsens and, at the moment, the probability of downpours in Malaga city and along parts of the Costa del Sol according to the weather forecast models is 100%. And Holy Tuesday is also threatened by rain.

For the second half of the week, there is still a lot of uncertainty. At the moment, Holy Wednesday and Maundy Thursday are clear but it could get worse again on Good Friday.

"It's going to be an unstable and cooler than normal Holy Week," summarised Jesús Riesco, head of the Aemet weather centre in Malaga. For starters, on Sunday a 'Dana' (high level depression) will approach from the Canary Islands (which is causing the current 'calima' haze of Sahara dessert dust over Malaga province), so the weather will be unstable and some isolated and scattered showers are not ruled out, most likely in the second half of the day, although it is very difficult to be precise.

During the early hours of Monday morning there is a very high probability it will start to rain across the whole province. "It is almost certain, unless the weather models fail miserably. It will be persistent, heavy and long-lasting rain, with mud due to the haze.

Later on Monday, the 'Dana' will be reabsorbed into the general circulation and a new trough will arrive from the north of the Spanish mainland. This will cause temperatures to drop drastically. On the positive side, it will sweep away the 'calima' dust haze. "The new high trough will leave instability on Tuesday, especially, and early Wednesday".

On Wednesday, in theory, there will tend to be an improvement, which will continue on Thursday. On Friday there will again be a high degree of uncertainty, with the arrival of another storm which will affect the Spanish mainland but it remains to be seen how it will affect Malaga province, although rain is not ruled out.

In addition, temperatures will be below normal for this time of year, and this will be especially noticeable due to the contrast from a week well above normal (26C) to a drop to a maximum of 16 degrees between Monday and Wednesday, which will be the coldest days (10 degrees less). Inland, it will be even worse, with daytime highs of around 12 degrees in Antequera and Ronda.

Regarding Palm Sunday, Malaga weather expert José Luis Escudero, head of the SUR blog 'Tormentas y Rayos', pointed out "we will have to keep an eye on the radar, if the 'Dana' comes a little earlier there will be mud showers during the afternoon, because the concentration of dust in suspension is still very high, although nothing like last time".

As for Holy Monday and Tuesday, he also pointed to the formation of a storm to the northwest of Galicia, so "we will have to see at what time the heaviest rainfall is expected in Malaga". On this point, as the temperatures are going to drop, he said that snowfall above 1,600 metres in the province's Sierra de las Nieves and Tejeda mountain ranges could be seen again.