Spain's Met Office warns of first heat wave of the year: this is how it will affect Andalucía

The state weather agency expects the mercury to soar to 44C in parts of the region, possibly accompanied by a 'calima' haze, but how long will the episode last?

Almudena Nogués

Malaga

Tuesday, 16 July 2024, 16:42 | Updated 16:55h.

The experts have been offering their forecasts for days. And it has finally happened. Spain's state weather agency (Aemet) in its midday update this afternoon has issued the warning that many feared: the first heat wave of the year (and, therefore, of the summer) is on its way.

"A large anticyclone at medium and high levels, currently located in the interior of Algeria, will intensify and extend over the next few days towards the west inducing, from tomorrow (Wednesday 17th), a southerly flow, which will introduce a very warm, dry and stable air mass over the Spanish mainland and the Balearic Islands," warned the national agency.

What will be the consequences? Its presence, together with the high insolation associated with a situation of great atmospheric stability, will cause a generalised and progressive rise in temperatures in a large part of the mainland area, mainly between Thursday and the weekend, which will lead to higher thermal values than usual at this time of year, except in the northwest of the peninsula and the Cantabrian area where there will be a cooler Atlantic flow".

It's bad news, then, for those who hate hot weather. Fans and air conditioning units are in for some frenetic days, but how specifically will it affect Andalucía? The forecast, as usual in these episodes, is not good.

"The most affected areas will be the southern half and the north-eastern quadrant of the Spanish mainland, where it is expected that from Thursday 18 July "temperatures will exceed 38C reaching 40-42 degrees in areas of the Guadiana, Tagus and Ebro valleys; and even 42-44 degrees in the Guadalquivir valley", says Aemet. The peak of this heat wave will be Friday 19, when maximum temperatures of over 4Cs may occur more extensively. In the Andalucía region, Cordoba and Seville will be the provinces with the highest temperatures, between 42 and 44 degrees. The minimum temperatures will also remain very high, with temperatures even above 25 degrees in Jaén and Granada.

Heat... and haze

As Aemet indicates, the irruption of this very warm and dry air mass from North Africa will be accompanied by suspended dust, which will probably lead to the presence of this phenomenon in a large part of the southern and eastern half of the Iberian Peninsula on Thursday and Friday.

The question is, until when? The state agency has not yet refined its forecast. What it does seem is that from Saturday, 20 July, the entry of a mass of cooler Atlantic air could lead to a drop in temperatures on the Atlantic side of the Spanish mainland. So much for the good news. The bad news? That temperatures will still remain quite high, "mainly in the eastern third of the country where the west wind will cause a further increase, with highs that may again reach 42-44 degrees in the valleys of the Ebro, Júcar and Segura", explained Aemet.

During Sunday 21, the state weather agency forecasts that the temperature drop that began on Saturday will be transferred to the Cantabrian area and the north-eastern quadrant of the mainland, which could be especially marked around the Ebro valley. In the rest of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, temperatures will continue to fall slightly, except on the southeast coast, where they could rise. "From Monday 22nd onwards, the uncertainty of the meteorological situation increases, making it difficult to determine the end of this heatwave episode. With the current information, the most likely scenario would indicate a new rise in temperatures, which could last until mid-week," Aemet concluded.

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